China

The China debt clock takes the most recent official snapshot from MOF, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the People’s Bank of China, and interpolates each instant with the published annual growth rates.

What China’s headline excludes

The headline number is the MOF official central + local government debt only. It does not roll in LGFVs or hidden local debt estimates, which differ widely across institutions. The FAQ and comparison pages discuss those gaps explicitly.

When this page's numbers differ from elsewhere

Figures for Chinese debt vary widely between sources, and most of that variation is not error but a difference in perimeter. This page's headline is official government debt as recorded in Ministry of Finance accounts (about 58.6% of GDP), while the figures quoted by international bodies and research houses are often on an augmented basis including quasi-government debt such as that of local government financing vehicles (roughly 112%).

Augmented measures also differ from each other. Judgements about which vehicles count as quasi-government, and how far state responsibility extends, vary by institution, so the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements and private research diverge. It is more accurate to treat an augmented figure as a range than to cite it as a single value.

Base dates differ too. Ministry of Finance accounts, National Bureau of Statistics GDP and population data follow different release schedules, so the interpolated interval differs by series. Add the date at which the yuan-dollar rate was applied and the gap between dollar-denominated figures widens further.

In short, when reconciling Chinese numbers, first establish whether the figure is official or augmented, whose estimate the augmented one is, and what base date and exchange rate were used. This site shows both series with their base dates, so that reconciliation can be done on the page itself.

What the China page tracks

The headline is the government debt balance recorded in Ministry of Finance final accounts: central government bonds outstanding plus local government debt. Local debt is in turn split into general debt, repaid from the general public budget, and special-purpose debt (zhuanxiang), repaid from project revenue or government fund income. Bonds issued by the policy banks and the debts of state-owned enterprises are not government debt under China’s official definition, so they are not included.

For households, the page uses loans to households (zhuhu) from the People’s Bank of China credit balance sheet of financial institutions. Personal mortgage and credit card balances are sub-series taken from separate reports with a different cadence and basis, so they are tagged as estimates and are not interpolated live.

Where the official data comes from, and how it is revised

China’s government debt balance is fixed once a year. The Ministry of Finance presents its budget report to the National People’s Congress each March, and around June reports the previous year’s central final accounts to the NPC Standing Committee, which makes the year-end balance official. Within the year, the ministry’s monthly release on local government bond issuance and debt outstanding shows the trend — but that monthly release covers only the local side.

GDP is first published by the National Bureau of Statistics as a preliminary annual estimate in mid-January, then revised through two rounds of verification. When the five-yearly economic census is completed, past GDP levels are adjusted, which changes the debt-to-GDP ratio retroactively. Year-end population, based on a sample survey, is announced in January and reprinted in the statistical communiqué at the end of February.

Local government debt is managed under a ceiling. Each March, as part of the budget, the National People’s Congress sets that year’s new quota for local general and special-purpose debt, and the balance moves within it. The new quota announced in March is therefore a leading indicator of how much the official series will grow that year.

How the live counter moves for China

Because China’s headline anchor is a single year-end figure, the interpolation interval is the longest of the five countries. The curve after the base date extends the previous year’s growth rate, while actual local bond issuance is uneven from quarter to quarter. To know the real balance at a given point in the year, compare against the ministry’s monthly local bond data.

Part of the high growth rate is a reclassification effect. In November 2024 the NPC Standing Committee approved a 6 trillion yuan increase in the local government debt ceiling so that hidden debt could be swapped into official bonds. As the swap proceeds, the official series grows even if total debt in the economy does not — which is why the pace on this screen should not be read purely as new borrowing.

Headline series base date: 2025-12-31
Annual growth rate g applied: 16.98%
Increase per second at the base date: CN¥477,367
Household debt base date: 2025-12-31
Formula and base-date rules: Methodology

Known limitations of the Chinese data

First, quasi-government debt, including that of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), is excluded from the headline, and estimates of its size vary greatly between institutions. Second, the current account card is an estimated series from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) balance of payments and is not interpolated. Third, the yuan is a managed float anchored on a central parity fixed by the central bank every day, so dollar conversions depend on which day’s fixing was applied.

Fourth, the official series itself shifts perimeter with policy decisions. When off-balance-sheet debt moves on balance sheet, as in the hidden-debt swap, simple comparisons with earlier years break down. For long-run trends it is better to set this series next to the IMF’s augmented estimate for the same year and watch how the gap between the two changes.

How to check the headline yourself

Open the central final accounts report for the relevant year among the final-accounts documents on the Budget Department pages of the Ministry of Finance: it gives the year-end balance of central government bonds and of local government debt separately. Their sum is this page’s headline. Changes on the local side during the year can be followed in the ministry’s monthly notice on local government bond issuance and debt outstanding.

To recompute the debt-to-GDP ratio, use annual GDP from the National Bureau of Statistics English press release as the denominator. Chinese official documents mix units of 100 million yuan and trillion yuan, so align the digits first. When checking the same calculation against an IMF table, first establish whether the IMF figure uses the augmented or the official perimeter.